{ "series_id": "drv.ust.curve", "label": "米国債イールドカーブ（全11年限・傾きの分類つき）", "layer": 2, "source_class": "DERIVED", "unit": "percent", "cadence": "daily", "algorithm": "ust-curve@1", "code_sha256": "9b9b4df072d1b5c36f6ea262cd147eb9a35622d3aae189202335c734f2f35f34", "code_commit": null, "rule_id": "jgb.curve.slope@1", "rule_definition": "当日の変化量（bp）を短期側（2年）と超長期側（30年）で比べる。水準の変化は両者の平均の符号、傾きの変化は Δ(30年) − Δ(2年) とする。いずれも 1.0bp 未満のとき UNCHANGED とする。", "rule_scope": "分類は当日の変化量を機械的に当てはめた結果である。なぜそう動いたか（政策期待・需給・財政）は述べない。それは解釈であり、当所の領分ではない（会則第8条）。記録として言えるのは『短期より超長期が上がった』までである。", "caveat": "H.15の定額満期利回り（Constant Maturity）であり、特定銘柄の利回りではない。日次の確定値であり日中の気配ではない。当日分は16:15 ET に公表される。", "tenors": [ "1m", "3m", "6m", "1y", "2y", "3y", "5y", "7y", "10y", "20y", "30y" ], "spreads": { "s2_10": "10y − 2y（bp）", "s10_30": "30y − 10y（bp）", "s2_30": "30y − 2y（bp）", "s3m_10": "10y − 3m（bp）", "s5_30": "30y − 5y（bp）" }, "slope_labels": { "BEAR_STEEPENING": "上昇・スティープ化（短期より超長期が上がった）", "BEAR_FLATTENING": "上昇・フラット化（超長期より短期が上がった）", "BULL_STEEPENING": "低下・スティープ化（超長期より短期が下がった）", "BULL_FLATTENING": "低下・フラット化（短期より超長期が下がった）", "UNCHANGED": "閾値未満（1.0bp）" }, "source": { "publisher": "Federal Reserve", "release": "H.15 Selected Interest Rates", "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/" }, "extremes": { "10y": { "value": "4.730", "history_start": "1962-01-02", "observations": 16150, "is_record_high": false, "is_record_low": false, "previous_high": { "value": "15.840", "date": "1981-09-30" }, "previous_low": { "value": "0.520", "date": "2020-08-04" } }, "1m": { "value": "3.840", "history_start": "2001-07-31", "observations": 6272, "is_record_high": false, "is_record_low": false, "previous_high": { "value": "6.020", "date": "2023-05-26" }, "previous_low": { "value": "0.000", "date": "2008-12-10" } }, "1y": { "value": "4.150", "history_start": "1962-01-02", "observations": 16150, "is_record_high": false, "is_record_low": false, "previous_high": { "value": "17.310", "date": "1981-09-03" }, "previous_low": { "value": "0.040", "date": "2021-05-21" } }, "20y": { "value": "5.210", "history_start": "1962-01-02", "observations": 14461, "is_record_high": false, "is_record_low": false, "previous_high": { "value": "15.780", "date": "1981-09-30" }, "previous_low": { "value": "0.870", "date": "2020-03-09" } }, "2y": { "value": "4.340", "history_start": "1976-06-01", "observations": 12558, "is_record_high": false, "is_record_low": false, "previous_high": { "value": "16.950", "date": "1981-09-08" }, "previous_low": { "value": "0.090", "date": "2021-02-05" } }, "30y": { "value": "5.220", "history_start": "1977-02-15", "observations": 12380, "is_record_high": false, "is_record_low": false, "previous_high": { "value": "15.210", "date": "1981-10-26" }, "previous_low": { "value": "0.990", "date": "2020-03-09" } }, "3m": { "value": "3.900", "history_start": "1981-09-01", "observations": 11248, "is_record_high": false, "is_record_low": false, "previous_high": { "value": "17.010", "date": "1981-09-01" }, "previous_low": { "value": "0.000", "date": "2008-12-10" } }, "3y": { "value": "4.410", "history_start": "1962-01-02", "observations": 16150, "is_record_high": false, "is_record_low": false, "previous_high": { "value": "16.590", "date": "1981-09-09" }, "previous_low": { "value": "0.100", "date": "2020-08-04" } }, "5y": { "value": "4.480", "history_start": "1962-01-02", "observations": 16150, "is_record_high": false, "is_record_low": false, "previous_high": { "value": "16.270", "date": "1981-09-30" }, "previous_low": { "value": "0.190", "date": "2020-08-04" } }, "6m": { "value": "4.020", "history_start": "1981-09-01", "observations": 11248, "is_record_high": false, "is_record_low": false, "previous_high": { "value": "17.430", "date": "1981-09-08" }, "previous_low": { "value": "0.020", "date": "2011-08-26" } }, "7y": { "value": "4.590", "history_start": "1969-07-01", "observations": 14280, "is_record_high": false, "is_record_low": false, "previous_high": { "value": "16.050", "date": "1981-09-29" }, "previous_low": { "value": "0.360", "date": "2020-08-04" } } }, "inversions": { "pairs": [], "checked_at": "2026-08-28" }, "inversions_rule": { "definition": "隣り合う年限で利回りが逆転している区間を検出する。", "why": "利回り曲線は年限が長いほど高いのが通常である。隣り合う年限で逆転しているとき、そこに需給の歪みがある。米国では2年と10年の逆転が景気後退の先行指標として語られるが、当所はその主張を採らない。逆転している事実のみを記録する。", "no_cause": "当所は原因を述べない。逆転しているという事実と過去の頻度を記録する。", "run_note": "1日だけの逆転と何十日も続く逆転は意味が違う。現在の連続日数と記録開始以降の最長を併記する。" }, "extremes_rule": { "definition": "最新の確定値が、保持している履歴の中で最高・最低かを比較する。", "not_all_time": "『史上最高』とは書かない。当所が保持するのはデータの開始日以降のみで、開始日は年限ごとに異なる（30年は1977年、20年は1993年など）。『記録開始以降で最高』と書き、開始日を必ず添える。", "no_importance": "記録更新であることは述べるが、それが重要かは述べない（会則第15条）。", "confirmed_only": "判定は財務省の日次確定値のみで行う。取引時間中の気配で記録更新を主張しない。" }, "buyback_confounder": { "from": "2026-09-09", "to": "2026-11-04", "fact": "米財務省は2026年8月19日、長期ゾーンの流動性支援買い戻しについて、1回あたりの上限を20億ドルから『少なくとも40億ドル』へ引き上げると公表した。対象は10-20年と20-30年ゾーン。実施は2026年9月9日から11月4日まで。公表元の説明は『長期ゾーンへのより大きな流動性支援』である。", "source": "https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0607", "evidence_class": "FACT", "why_it_matters": "この期間、長期ゾーンの利回り変動を金融政策への期待だけで読むと、買い戻しによる需給要因と取り違えうる。2年が動かず30年だけ低下する場合、政策期待ではなく需給・期間プレミアム側の寄与を疑う余地がある。当所は全年限を保持しているため、分けて見ることができる。", "not_claimed": "買い戻しが長期金利を押し下げるかは当所は述べない。公表元は流動性支援と説明しており、金融緩和とは説明していない。効果の有無・大きさは仮説であって観測ではない（会則第8条）。" }, "latest": { "record_id": "drv.ust.curve:2026-08-28:r0:b10e89591483", "observation_date": "2026-08-28", "observation_precision": "date", "publisher_release_at": "2026-08-28T16:15:00-04:00", "release_at_method": "rule_derived", "release_rule_id": "frb.h15.daily", "release_lag_days": 0, "release_note": "H.15は当日分を当日16:15 ETに公表", "source_first_seen_at": "2026-09-01T13:43:35.778Z", "ingested_at": "2026-09-01T13:43:35.836Z", "status": "ORIGINAL", "revision_seq": 0, "supersedes_record_id": null, "1m": "3.840", "3m": "3.900", "6m": "4.020", "1y": "4.150", "2y": "4.340", "3y": "4.410", "5y": "4.480", "7y": "4.590", "10y": "4.730", "20y": "5.210", "30y": "5.220", "s2_10": "39.0", "s10_30": "49.0", "s2_30": "88.0", "s3m_10": "83.0", "s5_30": "74.0", "delta_bp": { "1m": 3.0, "3m": 6.0, "6m": 8.0, "1y": 11.0, "2y": 14.0, "3y": 11.0, "5y": 10.0, "7y": 7.0, "10y": 6.0, "20y": 3.0, "30y": 3.0 }, "slope_class": "BEAR_FLATTENING", "slope_label": "上昇・フラット化（超長期より短期が上がった）", "level_change_bp": 8.5, "slope_change_bp": -11.0, "threshold_bp": 1.0 }, "observations": [ { "record_id": "drv.ust.curve:2026-08-28:r0:b10e89591483", "observation_date": "2026-08-28", "observation_precision": "date", "publisher_release_at": "2026-08-28T16:15:00-04:00", "release_at_method": "rule_derived", "release_rule_id": "frb.h15.daily", "release_lag_days": 0, "release_note": "H.15は当日分を当日16:15 ETに公表", "source_first_seen_at": "2026-09-01T13:43:35.778Z", "ingested_at": "2026-09-01T13:43:35.836Z", "status": "ORIGINAL", "revision_seq": 0, "supersedes_record_id": null, "1m": "3.840", "3m": "3.900", "6m": "4.020", "1y": "4.150", "2y": "4.340", "3y": "4.410", "5y": "4.480", "7y": "4.590", "10y": "4.730", "20y": "5.210", "30y": "5.220", "s2_10": "39.0", "s10_30": "49.0", "s2_30": "88.0", "s3m_10": "83.0", "s5_30": "74.0", "delta_bp": { "1m": 3.0, "3m": 6.0, "6m": 8.0, "1y": 11.0, "2y": 14.0, "3y": 11.0, "5y": 10.0, "7y": 7.0, "10y": 6.0, "20y": 3.0, "30y": 3.0 }, "slope_class": "BEAR_FLATTENING", "slope_label": "上昇・フラット化（超長期より短期が上がった）", "level_change_bp": 8.5, "slope_change_bp": -11.0, "threshold_bp": 1.0 }, { "record_id": "drv.ust.curve:2026-08-27:r0:92938f8046f0", "observation_date": "2026-08-27", "observation_precision": "date", "publisher_release_at": "2026-08-27T16:15:00-04:00", "release_at_method": "rule_derived", "release_rule_id": "frb.h15.daily", "release_lag_days": 0, "release_note": "H.15は当日分を当日16:15 ETに公表", "source_first_seen_at": "2026-09-01T13:43:35.778Z", "ingested_at": "2026-09-01T13:43:35.836Z", "status": "ORIGINAL", "revision_seq": 0, "supersedes_record_id": null, "1m": "3.810", "3m": "3.840", "6m": "3.940", "1y": "4.040", "2y": "4.200", "3y": "4.300", "5y": "4.380", "7y": "4.520", "10y": "4.670", "20y": "5.180", "30y": "5.190", "s2_10": "47.0", "s10_30": "52.0", "s2_30": "99.0", "s3m_10": "83.0", "s5_30": "81.0", "delta_bp": { "1m": 1.0, "3m": -1.0, "6m": 0.0, "1y": 2.0, "2y": 1.0, "3y": 1.0, "5y": 1.0, "7y": 1.0, "10y": 1.0, "20y": 1.0, "30y": 1.0 }, "slope_class": "BEAR_FLATTENING", "slope_label": "上昇・フラット化（超長期より短期が上がった）", "level_change_bp": 1.0, "slope_change_bp": 0.0, "threshold_bp": 1.0 }, { "record_id": "drv.ust.curve:2026-08-26:r0:2b9b3c310fcc", "observation_date": "2026-08-26", "observation_precision": "date", "publisher_release_at": "2026-08-26T16:15:00-04:00", "release_at_method": "rule_derived", "release_rule_id": "frb.h15.daily", "release_lag_days": 0, "release_note": "H.15は当日分を当日16:15 ETに公表", "source_first_seen_at": "2026-09-01T13:43:35.778Z", "ingested_at": "2026-09-01T13:43:35.836Z", "status": "ORIGINAL", "revision_seq": 0, "supersedes_record_id": null, "1m": "3.800", "3m": "3.850", "6m": "3.940", "1y": "4.020", "2y": "4.190", "3y": "4.290", "5y": "4.370", "7y": "4.510", "10y": "4.660", "20y": "5.170", "30y": "5.180", "s2_10": "47.0", "s10_30": "52.0", "s2_30": "99.0", "s3m_10": "81.0", "s5_30": "81.0", "delta_bp": { "1m": 1.0, "3m": -1.0, "6m": -1.0, "1y": 1.0, "2y": 2.0, "3y": 4.0, "5y": 2.0, "7y": 3.0, "10y": 2.0, "20y": 1.0, "30y": 1.0 }, "slope_class": "BEAR_FLATTENING", "slope_label": "上昇・フラット化（超長期より短期が上がった）", "level_change_bp": 1.5, "slope_change_bp": -1.0, "threshold_bp": 1.0 }, { "record_id": "drv.ust.curve:2026-08-25:r0:b02afc5f72af", "observation_date": "2026-08-25", "observation_precision": "date", "publisher_release_at": "2026-08-25T16:15:00-04:00", "release_at_method": "rule_derived", "release_rule_id": "frb.h15.daily", "release_lag_days": 0, "release_note": "H.15は当日分を当日16:15 ETに公表", "source_first_seen_at": "2026-09-01T13:43:35.778Z", "ingested_at": "2026-09-01T13:43:35.836Z", "status": "ORIGINAL", "revision_seq": 0, "supersedes_record_id": null, "1m": "3.790", "3m": "3.860", "6m": "3.950", "1y": "4.010", "2y": "4.170", "3y": "4.250", "5y": "4.350", "7y": "4.480", "10y": "4.640", "20y": "5.160", "30y": "5.170", "s2_10": "47.0", "s10_30": "53.0", "s2_30": "100.0", "s3m_10": "78.0", "s5_30": "82.0", "delta_bp": { "1m": 0.0, "3m": -1.0, "6m": -1.0, "1y": -3.0, "2y": -7.0, "3y": -6.0, "5y": -6.0, "7y": -7.0, "10y": -6.0, "20y": -5.0, "30y": -6.0 }, "slope_class": "BULL_STEEPENING", "slope_label": "低下・スティープ化（超長期より短期が下がった）", "level_change_bp": -6.5, "slope_change_bp": 1.0, "threshold_bp": 1.0 }, { "record_id": "drv.ust.curve:2026-08-24:r0:9facab670604", "observation_date": "2026-08-24", "observation_precision": "date", "publisher_release_at": "2026-08-24T16:15:00-04:00", "release_at_method": "rule_derived", "release_rule_id": "frb.h15.daily", "release_lag_days": 0, "release_note": "H.15は当日分を当日16:15 ETに公表", "source_first_seen_at": "2026-09-01T13:43:35.778Z", "ingested_at": "2026-09-01T13:43:35.836Z", "status": "ORIGINAL", "revision_seq": 0, "supersedes_record_id": null, "1m": "3.790", "3m": "3.870", "6m": "3.960", "1y": "4.040", "2y": "4.240", "3y": "4.310", "5y": "4.410", "7y": "4.550", "10y": "4.700", "20y": "5.210", "30y": "5.230", "s2_10": "46.0", "s10_30": "53.0", "s2_30": "99.0", "s3m_10": "83.0", "s5_30": "82.0", "delta_bp": { "1m": -1.0, "3m": -1.0, "6m": 1.0, "1y": 1.0, "2y": 0.0, "3y": 0.0, "5y": -2.0, "7y": -2.0, "10y": -4.0, "20y": -4.0, "30y": -4.0 }, "slope_class": "BULL_FLATTENING", "slope_label": "低下・フラット化（短期より超長期が下がった）", "level_change_bp": -2.0, "slope_change_bp": -4.0, "threshold_bp": 1.0 }, { "record_id": "drv.ust.curve:2026-08-21:r0:da6678e46d3e", "observation_date": "2026-08-21", "observation_precision": "date", "publisher_release_at": "2026-08-21T16:15:00-04:00", "release_at_method": "rule_derived", "release_rule_id": "frb.h15.daily", "release_lag_days": 0, "release_note": "H.15は当日分を当日16:15 ETに公表", "source_first_seen_at": "2026-09-01T13:43:35.778Z", "ingested_at": "2026-09-01T13:43:35.836Z", "status": "ORIGINAL", "revision_seq": 0, "supersedes_record_id": null, "1m": "3.800", "3m": "3.880", "6m": "3.950", "1y": "4.030", "2y": "4.240", "3y": "4.310", "5y": "4.430", "7y": "4.570", "10y": "4.740", "20y": "5.250", "30y": "5.270", "s2_10": "50.0", "s10_30": "53.0", "s2_30": "103.0", "s3m_10": "86.0", "s5_30": "84.0", "delta_bp": { "1m": 0.0, "3m": 1.0, "6m": 1.0, "1y": 4.0, "2y": 5.0, "3y": 5.0, "5y": 4.0, "7y": 4.0, "10y": 5.0, "20y": 5.0, "30y": 4.0 }, "slope_class": "BEAR_FLATTENING", "slope_label": "上昇・フラット化（超長期より短期が上がった）", "level_change_bp": 4.5, "slope_change_bp": -1.0, "threshold_bp": 1.0 }, { "record_id": "drv.ust.curve:2026-08-20:r0:b599e1c8a6e8", "observation_date": "2026-08-20", "observation_precision": "date", "publisher_release_at": "2026-08-20T16:15:00-04:00", "release_at_method": "rule_derived", "release_rule_id": "frb.h15.daily", "release_lag_days": 0, "release_note": "H.15は当日分を当日16:15 ETに公表", "source_first_seen_at": "2026-09-01T13:43:35.778Z", "ingested_at": "2026-09-01T13:43:35.836Z", "status": 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"threshold_bp": 1.0 }, { "record_id": "drv.ust.curve:2024-08-30:r0:0a722e4f0e39", "observation_date": "2024-08-30", "observation_precision": "date", "publisher_release_at": "2024-08-30T16:15:00-04:00", "release_at_method": "rule_derived", "release_rule_id": "frb.h15.daily", "release_lag_days": 0, "release_note": "H.15は当日分を当日16:15 ETに公表", "source_first_seen_at": "2026-09-01T13:43:35.778Z", "ingested_at": "2026-09-01T13:43:35.836Z", "status": "ORIGINAL", "revision_seq": 0, "supersedes_record_id": null, "1m": "5.410", "3m": "5.210", "6m": "4.890", "1y": "4.380", "2y": "3.910", "3y": "3.790", "5y": "3.710", "7y": "3.800", "10y": "3.910", "20y": "4.280", "30y": "4.200", "s2_10": "0.0", "s10_30": "29.0", "s2_30": "29.0", "s3m_10": "-130.0", "s5_30": "49.0", "delta_bp": { "1m": 1.0, "3m": -1.0, "6m": 0.0, "1y": 0.0, "2y": 4.0, "3y": 3.0, "5y": 5.0, "7y": 4.0, "10y": 4.0, "20y": 4.0, "30y": 5.0 }, "slope_class": "BEAR_STEEPENING", "slope_label": "上昇・スティープ化（短期より超長期が上がった）", "level_change_bp": 4.5, "slope_change_bp": 1.0, "threshold_bp": 1.0 }, { "record_id": "drv.ust.curve:2024-08-29:r0:bfc33613458e", "observation_date": "2024-08-29", "observation_precision": "date", "publisher_release_at": "2024-08-29T16:15:00-04:00", "release_at_method": "rule_derived", "release_rule_id": "frb.h15.daily", "release_lag_days": 0, "release_note": "H.15は当日分を当日16:15 ETに公表", "source_first_seen_at": "2026-09-01T13:43:35.778Z", "ingested_at": "2026-09-01T13:43:35.836Z", "status": "ORIGINAL", "revision_seq": 0, "supersedes_record_id": null, "1m": "5.400", "3m": "5.220", "6m": "4.890", "1y": "4.380", "2y": "3.870", "3y": "3.760", "5y": "3.660", "7y": "3.760", "10y": "3.870", "20y": "4.240", "30y": "4.150", "s2_10": "0.0", "s10_30": "28.0", "s2_30": "28.0", "s3m_10": "-135.0", "s5_30": "49.0", "delta_bp": { "1m": -7.0, "3m": 1.0, "6m": 2.0, "1y": 2.0, "2y": 4.0, "3y": 4.0, "5y": 3.0, "7y": 2.0, "10y": 3.0, "20y": 2.0, "30y": 2.0 }, "slope_class": "BEAR_FLATTENING", "slope_label": "上昇・フラット化（超長期より短期が上がった）", "level_change_bp": 3.0, "slope_change_bp": -2.0, "threshold_bp": 1.0 }, { "record_id": "drv.ust.curve:2024-08-28:r0:4f5f6907e330", "observation_date": "2024-08-28", "observation_precision": "date", "publisher_release_at": "2024-08-28T16:15:00-04:00", "release_at_method": "rule_derived", "release_rule_id": "frb.h15.daily", "release_lag_days": 0, "release_note": "H.15は当日分を当日16:15 ETに公表", "source_first_seen_at": "2026-09-01T13:43:35.778Z", "ingested_at": "2026-09-01T13:43:35.836Z", "status": "ORIGINAL", "revision_seq": 0, "supersedes_record_id": null, "1m": "5.470", "3m": "5.210", "6m": "4.870", "1y": "4.360", "2y": "3.830", "3y": "3.720", "5y": "3.630", "7y": "3.740", "10y": "3.840", "20y": "4.220", "30y": "4.130", "s2_10": "1.0", "s10_30": "29.0", "s2_30": "30.0", "s3m_10": "-137.0", "s5_30": "50.0", "delta_bp": { "1m": -2.0, "3m": -2.0, "6m": -2.0, "1y": 2.0, "2y": 0.0, "3y": 0.0, "5y": -3.0, "7y": 1.0, "10y": 1.0, "20y": 1.0, "30y": 0.0 }, "slope_class": "UNCHANGED", "slope_label": "閾値未満（1.0bp）", "level_change_bp": 0.0, "slope_change_bp": 0.0, "threshold_bp": 1.0 } ], "quotation_rule": "slope_class を『財政懸念』などの原因とともに引用しないこと。分類は変化量の当てはめであり、原因の特定ではない。", "output_sha256": "3e37f0a1dc815930954ff3b5da3280d27eaaa253739af5733de20ba334e92767", "generated_at": "2026-09-01T13:43:35Z" }